Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies: AI Prediction — Sunday, May 10, 2026
· 1:35 PM · Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
AI Prediction Summary
GameLens projects Philadelphia Phillies to defeat Colorado Rockies with a 85.0% win probability, based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations and a 3/3 model consensus (Monte Carlo, Elo, and Poisson). The projected spread is Philadelphia Phillies -1.5, and the headline pick (Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies -310 at -310) carries an AI win probability of 85.0% against a market-implied probability of 75.6%.
Source: 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, Elo ratings, and Poisson scoring models. Model run: .
Model Breakdown
| Market | Monte Carlo | Elo | Poisson | Consensus | AI Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 3/3 | 85.0% |
| Run Line | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 3/3 | 65.0% |
| Total | Under | N/A | Under | 2/3 | 55.1% |
| F5 Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 3/3 | 77.1% |
| F5 Run Line | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 3/3 | 62.3% |
| F5 Total | Over | N/A | Over | 2/3 | 51.2% |
Key Factors
Detailed factor-level analysis (injury impact, recent form deltas, edge-vs-market calculations, and per-market expected value) is available to signed-in members. Sign in to view the full breakdown.
Betting Market Context
Current market pricing on the headline moneyline pick is Philadelphia Phillies -310 at -310, implying a market-priced probability of 75.6%. GameLens' AI model outputs a probability of 85.0% on this side — the difference between the two is what drives pick confidence. For live line movement, consensus reports, and steam alerts, see the MLB line-movement dashboard.