St. John's vs Butler: AI Prediction — Jan 28, 2026
AI Prediction Summary
GameLens projects St. John's to defeat Butler with a 74.6% win probability, based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations and a 3/3 model consensus (Monte Carlo, Elo, and Poisson). The projected spread is Butler +12.5, and the headline pick (Moneyline: St. John's -1100 at -1100) carries an AI win probability of 74.6% against a market-implied probability of 91.7%.
Source: 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, Elo ratings, and Poisson scoring models. Model run: .
Model Breakdown
| Market | Monte Carlo | Elo | Poisson | Consensus | AI Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. John's | St. John's | St. John's | 3/3 | 74.6% |
| Spread | Butler | St. John's | Butler | 2/3 | 54.1% |
| Total | Under | N/A | Under | 2/3 | 52.8% |
Key Factors
Detailed factor-level analysis (injury impact, recent form deltas, edge-vs-market calculations, and per-market expected value) is available to signed-in members. Sign in to view the full breakdown.
Betting Market Context
Current market pricing on the headline moneyline pick is St. John's -1100 at -1100, implying a market-priced probability of 91.7%. GameLens' AI model outputs a probability of 74.6% on this side — the difference between the two is what drives pick confidence. For live line movement, consensus reports, and steam alerts, see the NCAAB line-movement dashboard.